MHDVs

Medium-Term Opportunity

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (MHDVs) are the backbone of the economy and one of its most difficult decarbonization challenges. They span three on-road classes, medium-duty, heavy-duty, and buses, and run five functional segments, from urban delivery and municipal service fleets to long-haul freight. Nearly all classes run on diesel or gasoline and together produce roughly 9.6% of Canada’s GHG emissions.

Due to the wide differences in weight, range, duty cycle, and return-to-base operations, there is no individual solution. Battery-electric vehicles suit most of the medium-duty, service, and return-to-base vehicles, while hydrogen fuel-cell and renewable diesel are better matched to long-haul and heavy-payload routes. To meet federal targets, Canada will require sequenced deployment, rapid charging and hydrogen build-out, and coordinated policy, supply, and cost support.

GHG emissions
  • 64.5
    Mt CO₂e
9.6% of the national emissions, 2023
Zero emissions fleet
  • < 2%
    of MHDVs are zero-emissions
Of roughly 1.3 million MHDVs on the road – almost all run on diesel or gasoline
Economic
  • 300K+
    jobs
Truck drivers moving roughly 90% of Canada's consumer products freight
Top pathways for action
Pathway Elements
Role in the
Net-Zero System
Signal to
Decision-Makers
Pathways Elements
Battery Electric
Role in the Net-Zero System
Priority Decarbonization Pathway
Signal to Decision-Makers
Deploy
Mass deployment now. Scale charging infrastructure.
Pathways Elements
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric
Role in the Net-Zero System
Potential Decarbonization Pathway
Signal to Decision-Makers
Enable
Invest in hydrogen refuelling corridors and support demonstration fleets for long-haul and heavy-payload applications.
Pathways Elements
Hydrogen Combustion
Role in the Net-Zero System
Potential Decarbonization Pathway
Signal to Decision-Makers
Enable
Support demonstration fleets and investment in hydrogen fuelling corridors alongside FCEV development. Treat as a complement to FCEVs, not a replacement.
Pathways Elements
Renewable Diesel
(RD)
Role in the Net-Zero System
Bridge Pathway
Signal to Decision-Makers
Deploy
Maximize drop-in renewable diesel use across existing fleets now while zero-emission vehicles scale up. Ensure feedstock sustainability governance is in place.
This is a selection of priority pathways for this sector; others are covered in the full pathway assessments below.
Current challenges
#ffb400
High ZEV costs

Zero-emission MHDVs still require subsidies to reach cost parity with diesel.

Thin vehicle availability

Very few fuel-cell model and manufacturers prioritize larger markets and do not yet cater to Canada's heavier trucks.

Low technological readiness

ZEV readiness for MHDVs lags compared to passenger vehicles, with fewer pilots and demonstrations.

Operational constraints

Longer charging and fuelling times affect duty cycles and hours-of-service.

Longer-term issues
#ffb400
Clean energy build-out

Stepwise expansion of low-carbon electricity and hydrogen supply and delivery infrastructure.

Hydrogen availability

Low-cost, low-carbon hydrogen is not yet available.

Grid capacity

Megawatt-class depot and corridor charging will require major grid upgrades.

Sequencing long-haul

The heaviest, longest routes decarbonize last, as hydrogen and megawatt charging mature.

Jurisdictional coordination

Corridor build-out must be aligned across federal, provincial, and municipal governments and utilities.

Indicators of progress
#089457
ZEV sales share

Percentage of zero-emission sales in each market segment.

Infrastructure scale

Chargers and hydrogen stations deployed.

Fuel carbon intensity

Carbon intensity of the grid electricity or hydrogen powering MHDVs.

Economic opportunities
#089457
Lower operating costs

Electricity is cheaper than diesel and BEVs need less maintenance.

Innovation leadership

Opportunity to lead in heavy-duty vehicle innovation and early hydrogen-market development.

Clean-transport supply chains

Battery, charger, and truck manufacturing with export potential.

Pathway Assessments for Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles Sector

View all of the major decarbonization pathways available to this sector, including a high-level signal of its current readiness, or filter the list for only the signals you’re looking for. Click any of the pathway elements for a detailed look at the analysis behind the assessments.
Table
Cards
Filter
Pathways Signals
Pathways Roles
Choose a signal
Pathways Signals
Choose a role
Pathways Roles
Criteria status
  • Fails
  • Not promising
  • Meets in some respect
  • Potentially meets
  • Meets criteria
Pathway
Elements
Role in the
Net-Zero System
Signal to
Decision-Makers
Alignment with Carbon Neutrality
Economic
Technical
Social
Vehicles
Renewable Natural Gas
(RNG)
Potential
Niche Pathway
Enable
Support RNG projects tied to hauling (i.e. waste management) with secured end users.
Can be net zero with decarbonized feedstocks.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Bridge Pathway
Deploy
Deploy PHEVs. as a complementary option for BEVs. Scale charging infrastructure.
Meaningful reductions only with high electric‑miles share. Complements transition to BEVs but not compatible with net zero.
Natural Gas
(NG)
Dead-End Pathway
Dismiss
Redirect support to initiatives focused on electrification and building out production and use of renewable fuels.
Incompatible with net zero. Limited emissions reduction. Investment into assets that lengthen the timeline to decarbonization.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric
Potential
Decarbonization Pathway
Enable
Invest in hydrogen refuelling corridors and support demonstration fleets for long-haul and heavy-payload applications.
Achieves zero emissions when supplied with low-carbon hydrogen.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Potential
Niche Pathway
Don’t Prioritize
Very niche applications (remote or robust hydrogen infrastructure).
Achieves zero emissions when supplied with low-carbon hydrogen.
Hydrogen Combustion
Potential
Decarbonization Pathway
Enable
Support demonstration fleets and investment in hydrogen fuelling corridors alongside FCEV development. Treat as a complement to FCEVs, not a replacement.
Achieves near-zero emissions when supplied with low-carbon hydrogen.
Hybrid Electric
(gasoline engine with battery and regenerative braking)
Dead-End Pathway
Dismiss
End support. Prioritize support for BEVs and PHEVs.
Limited emissions reduction and slows transition to better alternatives. perpetuates fossil fuel use.
Battery Electric
Priority
Decarbonization Pathway
Deploy
Mass deployment now. Scale charging infrastructure.
Zero tailpipe emissions. Dependent on decarbonizing grid electricity and supply chain (net-zero lifecycle vehicles).
Battery Electric
Priority
Decarbonization Pathway
Deploy
Accelerate fleet adoption and charging infrastructure buildout for MHDV applications. Prioritize return-to-base and short-haul segments first.
Runs on clean electricity with no tailpipe emissions. Requires decarbonized electricity and supply chain.
Drop-in Fuels
Renewable Diesel
(RD)
Bridge Pathway
Deploy
Maximize drop-in renewable diesel use across existing fleets now while zero-emission vehicles scale up. Ensure feedstock sustainability governance is in place.
Drop-in fuel, with lifecycle CO₂ cuts. Net zero requires carbon removal. Combustion persists and sustainable feedstocks are finite.
E-Fuels
Potential
Dead-End Pathway
Don’t Prioritize
Track international developments in e-fuel production costs and efficiency. Invest if economics fundamentally improve.
Can be near-zero-carbon when produced with clean electricity and CO₂, suited to hard-to-electrify niches.
Complementary Technologies
Hydrogen-Diesel Co-Combustion Retrofits
Potential
Bridge Pathway
Incubate
Support retrofit for existing long-haul fleets in near-term, particularly where BEV adoption faces constraints. Invest in hydrogen fuelling corridors.
Reduces diesel use and lowers emissions but not a net-zero end state. Compatible with low-hydrogen supply buildout.
Catenary Electric Systems
Potential
Niche Pathway
Don’t Prioritize
Redirect resources toward battery-electric and hydrogen solutions with broader applicability.
Electrifies at point of use, but corridor-bound infrastructure limits national scalability.
Vehicles
Renewable Natural Gas
(RNG)
Enable
Potential
Niche Pathway
Support RNG projects tied to hauling (i.e. waste management) with secured end users.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Deploy
Bridge Pathway
Deploy PHEVs. as a complementary option for BEVs. Scale charging infrastructure.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Natural Gas
(NG)
Dismiss
Dead-End Pathway
Redirect support to initiatives focused on electrification and building out production and use of renewable fuels.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric
Enable
Potential
Decarbonization Pathway
Invest in hydrogen refuelling corridors and support demonstration fleets for long-haul and heavy-payload applications.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Don’t Prioritize
Potential
Niche Pathway
Very niche applications (remote or robust hydrogen infrastructure).
ECON
TECH
SOC
Hydrogen Combustion
Enable
Potential
Decarbonization Pathway
Support demonstration fleets and investment in hydrogen fuelling corridors alongside FCEV development. Treat as a complement to FCEVs, not a replacement.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Hybrid Electric
(gasoline engine with battery and regenerative braking)
Dismiss
Dead-End Pathway
End support. Prioritize support for BEVs and PHEVs.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Battery Electric
Deploy
Priority
Decarbonization Pathway
Mass deployment now. Scale charging infrastructure.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Battery Electric
Deploy
Priority
Decarbonization Pathway
Accelerate fleet adoption and charging infrastructure buildout for MHDV applications. Prioritize return-to-base and short-haul segments first.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Drop-in Fuels
Renewable Diesel
(RD)
Deploy
Bridge Pathway
Maximize drop-in renewable diesel use across existing fleets now while zero-emission vehicles scale up. Ensure feedstock sustainability governance is in place.
ECON
TECH
SOC
E-Fuels
Don’t Prioritize
Potential
Dead-End Pathway
Track international developments in e-fuel production costs and efficiency. Invest if economics fundamentally improve.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Complementary Technologies
Hydrogen-Diesel Co-Combustion Retrofits
Incubate
Potential
Bridge Pathway
Support retrofit for existing long-haul fleets in near-term, particularly where BEV adoption faces constraints. Invest in hydrogen fuelling corridors.
ECON
TECH
SOC
Catenary Electric Systems
Don’t Prioritize
Potential
Niche Pathway
Redirect resources toward battery-electric and hydrogen solutions with broader applicability.
ECON
TECH
SOC

About the Assessments

What is a pathway element?
A specific technology, fuel, practice, or system change that could help drive Canada’s transition to net zero.
Each pathway is rated on three dimensions: economic, technical, and social. Each dimension aggregates several sub-criteria — economic covers viability and development opportunity; technical covers maturity, operational fit, and infrastructure/supply chain suitability; social covers acceptability, stakeholder relevance, and related benefits and costs. Ratings run from Fails to Meets criteria:
  • Fails: Does not meet the criteria
  • Not promising: Meets the criteria in very limited respects
  • Meets in some respect: Partially meets the criteria
  • Potentially meets: Meets most of the criteria
  • Meets criteria: Fully meets the criteria
Full scoring for each individual sub-criterion is available in the pathway explorer.
Each pathway element is categorized:
  • Decarbonization Pathway – achieves net zero
  • Niche Pathway – achieves net zero under specific conditions
  • Bridge Pathway – supports but doesn’t achieve net zero alone
  • Dead-End – incompatible with net zero
  • Enabling – supports other pathways without directly cutting emissions
Priority marks a pathway as essential and ready for deployment now. Potential marks one that could grow into its role but is still limited in feasibility.
What to do with a pathway today: Deploy (ready now), Enable (needs targeted support), Incubate (early-stage, fund R&D), Don’t Prioritize (monitor only), or Dismiss (redirect attention elsewhere).

Scores are grounded in the sources cited throughout each sector assessment, then reviewed by experts and industry stakeholders to confirm how each pathway elements criteria are ranked.

Primary Title
Secondary title
Priority
Decarbonization Pathway
Role in Net-Zero System

Signal to Decision-Makers

Deploy
Signal Description

Alignment with Carbon Neutrality

carbon score
Alignment with Carbon Neutrality description

Economic

Economic viability

economic viability score

Economic Viability description

Economic development

economic development score
Economic development description

Technical

Maturity

Maturity score
Maturity description

Operational fit

Operational Fit score
Operational Fit description

Infrastructure & supply

Infrastructure & supply score
Infrastructure & supply description

Social

Social acceptability

Social acceptability score
Social acceptability description

Relevance to stakeholders

Relevance to stakeholders score
Relevance to stakeholders description

Related benefits & costs

Related benefits & costs score
related benefits description